Kingdom Builder
Empowering God's People for Engaging the Culture ... by Equipping them with an Understanding of a Biblical Worldview
Friday, November 15, 2024
“The Purpose of Abortion Is to Produce a Dead Baby, Not to Save a Mother’s Life”
Wednesday, November 13, 2024
Kamala Harris Concession: Loyalty to ‘Our God’ Drives Me to Fight for Abortion
Monday, November 11, 2024
Joy Came in the Morning … After the Election
Friday, November 8, 2024
Wife Arrested in Connection with Missionary Husband's Murder
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Pastor, Family Burned Alive in Islamist Attack
Monday, November 4, 2024
Kamala Harris is Most 'Anti-Faith' Candidate in History
Friday, November 1, 2024
Harris Rejects Religious Exemptions in Abortion Debate
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Does Every Vote Really Matter?
Monday, October 28, 2024
‘Jesus Is Lord’? A Tale of Two Rallies
Friday, October 25, 2024
State of the 2024 Election
Much has been made
about what’s at stake in the upcoming 2024 election, and rightfully so. The last three and a half years have seen wars
emerge on almost every continent, a dramatically weakened dollar with
persistently high inflation and declining standard of living, the deterioration
of military readiness, a wide-open southern border, the politicization of our
legal system, an unprecedented all-out assault on the unborn and those standing
up for life, attacks on religious freedom, a disconcerting rise in political
violence, and more. As a result, just
28% of Americans say the country is on the right track, and they are primed to
make their voice heard.
The presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump has generated most of the attention and campaign spending and will be the main driver of turnout among voters. Every day, there are several new national and battleground polls released to the public, and in general they show a race within the margin of error (give or take 2-4 points depending on the specific poll) at the national level. Harris currently enjoys a two-point edge in the head-to-head polling average at RealClearPolitics. The Democratic candidate has traditionally won the national popular vote, but because of the wisdom of our Founding Fathers, the Electoral College is determinative.
Sixty-one percent of Americans agree the country is on the wrong track, and while this portends trouble ahead for the Harris campaign in persuading voters to continue the Biden-Harris policies in a Kamala Harris administration, it does translate to some anti-incumbent sentiment among voters, which plays to the benefit of Senate Republicans hoping to take the majority in the upper chamber in Congress. With a slim 51-49 seat majority, the Senate Democrats stand severely disadvantaged this election. Of the 34 Senate seats up for a vote this cycle, 23 are held by Democrats, many of which are in states that are also highly competitive at the presidential level.
After redistricting in 2020, the number of competitive races in the House of Representatives dipped. Gone are the days of 40-60 seat swings like we saw in the Tea Party era. This year, Cook Political Report has identified just 26 toss-up races in the U.S. House of Representatives. Of these 26, Republicans are defending 14, and Democrats are defending 12. For the current razor-thin, three-seat Republican majority, winning every one of these toss-up races is a must. With just 23% of voters approving of the job Congress is doing, the GOP is swimming against the tide to keep their majority.
Unlike the Senate, where a presidential candidate’s coattails can be decisive, most of the toss-up races in the House are in states that are not particularly competitive at the statewide or presidential level. Each individual candidate will have to win or lose in their own foxhole. Alaska, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Washington account for 16 of the 24 most competitive House races and will not see a competitive result at the presidential or Senate level, or do not have a competitive Senate race. GOP incumbents in these states will have to win in an environment of supercharged Democrat turnout, and vice versa for Democrat incumbents in toss-up races in Republican states. If you’re the GOP, of particular concern are GOP incumbents in California and New York. There are eight GOP incumbents between these two states alone, and both states are likely to go for Kamala Harris by as much as 20 points, or more. Combine anti-incumbent sentiment with deep blue states and you have a strong headwind for GOP incumbents in these states.
Hundreds of thousands, if not millions of Americans, have updated their voter registration or registered to vote for the first time this year. All this data is important and tells us some early signs of how the election will go.
Early vote data shows a dramatic decline in the number of mail-in ballots requested compared to 2020. Mail-in voting is likely to play a smaller role in the 2024 election than it did in the 2020 election when so many were still dealing with COVID-19.
Then there’s the campaign spending. Kamala Harris’s campaign has raised $678 million to Donald Trump’s $313 million. The Democratic National Committee similarly enjoys a fundraising advantage over its Republican counterparts, raking in $385 million to the Republican National Committee’s $331 million. The Republicans enjoy a slight campaign finance edge in the Senate contests, outraising their Democrat counterparts $200 million to $173 million. In the House, the National Republican Congressional Committee raised $183 million to the Democrats’ $250 million. This all amounts to billions of dollars flooding the airways and cell phone towers with campaign messaging.
All of this to say, the respective candidates and political parties have their own advantages and disadvantages. It’s incredibly difficult to say which advantages will determine outcomes, whether it’s a campaign cash advantage or public polling, voter registration or mail-in ballot requests, we will not know for sure until election night. Right now, the presidential race looks like it’s trending toward Donald Trump, the Senate is securely within reach of the Republicans, and the speaker’s gavel is at risk of being handed back over to the Democrats. If that’s the case, then we’ll look back and say 2024 was clearly an anti-incumbent election, and the country is asking for change. If Harris wins, the Democrats retain control of the Senate, and win back the House, then we can say campaign funding is the decisive factor in elections. If Trump wins, the GOP wins the Senate, and retains control of the House, we can say it was a repudiation of the Biden-era with its excessive social engineering, abortion extremism, runaway spending, foreign policy blunders, and all.
As followers of Christ, we know God is sovereign. This is not an excuse for inaction, but an acknowledgement that no election outcome surprises Him. The best day of the republic still falls short of the glory of the New Heaven and New Earth to come. We should pray for righteous leaders to prevail in November and pray that our nation would once again humble itself before the Lord acknowledging how far we have fallen from His righteous standard. The 2024 elections are incredibly important because of the stark differences in worldview represented by the major parties, but their importance pales in comparison to the work needed to repair our nation’s spiritual walls.
Wednesday, October 23, 2024
Why You Should Care about the Electoral College
At a time when
Americans feel more divided than ever, influential members of the Democratic
Party seek to undermine one of the Constitution’s greatest provisions assuring
national unity: They want to abolish the Electoral College. Although many see the institution as a
throwback to premodern times, the Electoral College still accomplishes the
Founding Fathers’ will of seeing that people of all states have their interests
represented in their government.
The most recent attempt to undermine the Constitution came from Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, who said, “I think all of us know, the Electoral College needs to go.” Over the years, nearly every prominent Democrat, including Hillary Clinton, has called for the presidential election to be determined by a national popular vote. But doing so would undermine national unity, eliminate voters’ confidence in election outcomes, and drown small states’ votes in a sea of blue.
The Founding Fathers established the Electoral College, in part, to ensure small states like Rhode Island did not end up subject to the whim of a few large states, such as Virginia and Pennsylvania. They made America a constitutional republic, which views individuals’ rights as individual, God-given, and unalienable and forbids the government from passing any law denying a person these rights, regardless of how popular the motion might be. A democracy, on the other hand, says a majority — 50% plus one — can strip a 49% minority of all its rights. The Founding Fathers “feared majority tyranny,” said Michael Maibach, distinguished fellow for Save Our States, on “Washington Watch” last Thursday. “Every state has two senators for a reason. That was the Connecticut Compromise, so that they would have two electors, no matter” its population.
The Electoral College reflected the Founders’ aim to protect minority rights and assure diversity in the national government. Presidential candidates would have to go beyond courting voters in large population areas and truly represent the interests of all to be elected. In The Federalist Papers, Alexander Hamilton wrote (Federalist No. 68), “Talents for low intrigue, and the little arts of popularity, may alone suffice to elevate a man to the first honors in a single State; but it will require other talents, and a different kind of merit, to establish him in the esteem and confidence of the whole Union, or of so considerable a portion of it as would be necessary to make him a successful candidate for the distinguished office of President of the United States.”
The Founders understood, even two centuries ago, Americans differ greatly from one region to another. These divisions have only grown in the last 235 years. The Pew Research Center’s Religious Landscape Survey showed blue states such as California and Colorado have a diametrically opposed view of abortion from Kentucky, West Virginia, and Alabama. Earlier this year, the liberal Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) reported:
A 33% difference between Massachusetts and the most
faithful states (Utah and Idaho) on pro-life protections for innocent, unborn
children.
A 31% difference between the most secular state
(Massachusetts) and the most faithful state (Mississippi) on support for
same-sex “marriage.”
A 29% difference between the most radical state
(Massachusetts) and the most faithful state (West Virginia) on religious
business owners’ right to live out their faith in the workplace.
While the Electoral
College gives these smaller, more conservative states a voice in selecting a
president, the national popular vote would bury their voice beneath a torrent
of city voters. “Nine of our states have
50% of our people,” Maibach noted. “Los
Angeles County has more people than 41 of our states, and New York City has
more people than 39 of our states.”
Increasingly, these blue states seek to impose their will on the rest of America by doing an end-run around the Constitution. Since 2006, 17 states and the District of Columbia, controlling 209 of the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency, have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPV). The NPV states that, regardless of how state voters cast their ballots, the state will instruct its presidential electors to vote for whichever candidate won the national popular vote.
This is a problem for numerous reasons. First, the U.S. government does not determine a national popular vote; each state calculates its popular vote total. NPV states would instruct electors to vote for the winner “I guess as tabulated by CNN or CBS or some other news organization,” said Maibach. Second, should the government come up with a way to calculate the national popular vote, every election could turn into the 2000 election — but instead recounts would multiply from one state to all 50, with all the penchant for mischief we have seen in recent elections.
The NPV would deny people the right to select their own rulers, which legal scholars say would render it unconstitutional. In effect, it is a constitutional amendment without taking the form of a constitutional amendment. Additionally, denying citizens the ability to select their own state’s electors would violate the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause, according to Peter Wallison of the American Enterprise Institute. Thomas Jipping of the Heritage Foundation holds that the NPV violates the Constitution’s Compact Clause, regulating state compacts that would harm other states’ interests.
A national popular vote would violate the Presidential Elections Clause of Article II of the U.S. Constitution, writes Norman R. Williams of Willamette Law School, because “[n]ot only did the framers of the Constitution expressly reject the idea of a direct, popular election for President, but also not one state either in the wake of ratification or at any time thereafter has ever sought to appoint its presidential electors on the basis of votes cast outside the state,” Still others believe a national popular vote runs afoul of the U.S. Constitution’s promise, “The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government” (Article IV, Section 3).
The NPV also ignores the American System, in which some areas specialize in urban manufacturing (or did), while others cede vast areas of their state to agriculture. Rural states naturally have lower population density in the national interest. “Most of our farmers would feel like serfs if they if they were feeding the cities, but only the cities rule,” said Maibach. “And the founders never wanted to have that.”
That NPV Compact overrides the rights of the people in another way. For years, red parts of blue states have threatened to break off and form their own states. Northern California, dating to the 1941 proclamation of the State of Jefferson. Eastern Oregon counties want to join Greater Idaho. But their moves toward independence would see their electoral votes wiped out by a national popular vote.
Not only would abolishing the Electoral College create mob rule, wipe out the voice of more conservative voters in rural areas, and put the government into the hands of big cities — it could see the U.S. government selected by illegal aliens. The 1993 National Voter Registration Act (NVRA), or “Motor-Voter Law,” prevents states from erecting meaningful barriers to illegal immigrants and other ineligible residents from registering to vote. Contrary to media “fact-checkers,” the threat of illegal immigrants voting is actual, not potential. Thousands of non-citizens have cast ballots, in Virginia alone.
The real impetus behind the popular vote is not to secure the national will; it is to secure Democrats’ electoral prospects. As with the efforts to pack the Supreme Court, the Left seeks to overturn the Electoral College, because left-wing candidates cannot win there. As of January 1, 2024, Republicans controlled 28 state legislatures, or 59% of the states. A total of 27 states have elected Republican governors. Individual states reject liberal policies, while those who favor them live largely in coastal metropolises.
“It is important for small states to be heard,” insisted Maibach. “Voices have to be heard from all parts of the country and not just from the big cities.” And it is vital Americans respect the prophetic genius that went into the creation of the Electoral College.