Imagine you’re a candidate who took the scary leap and ran for office. Month after month, you, along with family members, friends, and other volunteers, go out and talk to voters, raise money, and work through intense media interviews — all in hopes of winning the election.
Then imagine what it would be like once the ballots were tallied on Election Day to find out you didn’t win. And you didn’t lose. Your race ended in a tie. Or imagine you’re in a different race and find out you lost by a single vote. These stories, and many others like them, aren’t hypothetical. They’ve actually happened.
Before we get into these surprising outcomes, let’s take a look at the big picture. Every election cycle we hear, “Be sure to vote” and “Every vote matters.” We know that’s what we’re supposed to say as responsible citizens, but some Americans aren’t convinced. In a nation of over 335 million people, about 75% of whom are voting-age adults, it can be tempting to wonder if one vote is really going to make a difference.
According to a recent survey conducted by George Barna and the Cultural Research Center at Arizona Christian University, there are an estimated 41 million born-again Christians who are unlikely to vote in the 2024 elections (and 32 million unlikely to vote who regularly attend church). Interestingly, the survey found that one out of seven of these likely non-voters said they could be convinced to vote if family or friends talked to them about the election’s importance, if they received objective information about the important positions of the major candidates, or if they believed the election was going to be close and their vote would make a difference.
That last point shows how many people don’t think their vote will actually matter. While I believe we have a duty to steward our votes and participate regardless of how close we think the elections may be, there are many, many examples of close races where just a few votes made all the difference. In most of these cases, people had no idea just how close these contests would be ahead of time. From the presidential contest all the way down to local school board campaigns, there are thousands of important federal, state, and local races on the ballot this election. Regardless of whether you live in a deep red state, a deep blue state, or a purple state, there’s a very good chance that there will be elections somewhere in your state decided by just a handful of votes.
So how many races are really that close? The answer might surprise you. Here are a number of notable examples, from oldest to most recent, where just a few votes changed the outcome.
Senator Bernie Sanders (VT-I)
Given his far-left positions, you probably weren’t expecting me to start out with an example about Senator Bernie Sanders. But his story really illustrates this point. A self-described socialist, Sanders is well-known nationally and is considered by some to be among the most liberal members of the U.S. Senate. He’s also credited with moving the Democratic Party significantly left during his presidential runs and was considered the party’s presidential frontrunner for a period of time in the 2020 primary. What most people don’t know is that Sanders’s political career was launched when he won his election for mayor in the small town of Burlington, VT. He won that contest by just 10 votes. Had six of those voters cast their votes the other way, it’s entirely possible that most of us wouldn’t even know who Bernie Sanders is today.
2000 Presidential Election
One of the most well-known “nailbiters” in history, the 2000 presidential race, was incredibly close. The battle for control of the White House came down to the state of Florida. President George W. Bush secured the nomination because he bested Al Gore in the state and won the electoral college 271 to 266. His narrow margin of victory in the Sunshine State was just 537 votes. That incredibly small number is even more noteworthy when we remember over 5.9 million votes were cast in the state that year.
2016 Presidential Election
Let’s fast-forward to more recent elections. In 2016, Donald Trump was the decided underdog — so much so that well-known outlets like Reuters declared “Clinton has a 90 percent chance of winning.” We all remember how wrong the “experts” were that year. But many people forget just how close the race was. Four different states were decided by less than one percentage point (Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). Had President Trump lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Hillary Clinton would have won the election. These states combined for 13.9 million votes, but Trump’s combined margin of victory was less than 78,000 votes. In other words, he won the White House because he won these three states collectively by less than six-tenths of one point. It’s also worth noting there were an estimated 7.4 million voting-eligible adults in these three states who didn’t bother to cast a ballot.
2017 Virginia State House
Seven years ago, control of the Virginia State House of Delegates came down to one last House race. When most of the dust had settled after the election, Republicans held a total of 50 seats, Democrats had 49, and the final race was too close to call for a while. When the final tally came in, the race was tied: 11,608 votes to 11,608 votes! So how did the state decide the winner? Believe it or not, a name was drawn at random from a bowl. Republican David Yancey’s name was drawn and Republicans ended up with a 51-49 majority.
2018 State Legislative Races
You might be thinking, “Yeah, those are a few examples of close races. But that’s bound to happen every once in a while. Are there really that many in the grand scheme of things?” As a matter of fact, there are. An analysis by Ballotpedia found that in 2018 there were 88 different state legislative races decided by a half a percentage point or less. This included two state legislative races that were tied, and 16 that were decided by 10 votes or less.
2019 Boston City Council
Boston, Massachusetts is a large city that boasted nearly 700,000 residents in 2019. That year, there were races for city council, one of which was extremely close. After three days of hand-counting the ballots, Julia Mejia (D) bested her opponent 22,492 votes to 22,491 votes — the margin was a single vote.
2020 Presidential Election
The 2020 presidential race was also extremely close, and the Electoral College winner came down to Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. These were the closest states that collectively could have swung the outcome. There were 11.7 million votes cast in these three states, but they were decided by a mere 44,000 votes combined. There were five million voting-eligible adults in these three states who did not bother to vote.
2022 U.S. House Majority
Control of the U.S. House of Representatives is tremendously significant and carries important public policy ramifications that impact every single American. In 2022, Republicans won the House majority. But just a few thousand votes could have swung the gavel back to Democrats. In the 435-seat chamber, 218 seats are needed for majority. Republicans ended up with 222 seats. The GOP won their five closest House races by a razor thin 3,340 votes in all five contests combined.
Close Elections Database
If these examples aren’t enough to convince you that every vote matters, take a look at Public Interest Legal Foundation’s database of tied and close elections. They did a deep dive on historical federal, state, and local election results across the country. Their research found an astounding 636 races that ended in ties and 173 more that were decided by a single vote! And what’s more, this list of 800+ races isn’t comprehensive. There are many other close races that aren’t even included.
So the next time you hear someone say, “My vote doesn’t really matter,” share these stories! Of course, there are plenty of races that are not this close, and our votes matter in those races too. But you can never completely predict just how close a race might be.
Ultimately, it’s not just about winning close elections. The candidates who won these contests went on to implement policies that had a profound impact on their districts and, in some cases, the entire nation. In a democratic republic like ours, your vote is your voice. Use it!
Rev. Dr. Kenneth L. Beale, Jr.
Chaplain (Colonel-Ret), U.S. Army
Pastor, Ft. Snelling Memorial Chapel
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